The height was recorded in centimeters and weight was recorded in kilograms. Presence of comorbidities (listed in the Results section) was used to describe the population and was recorded from participants’ self-report and medical records. Binary logistic regression analyses were performed to examine the likelihood of developing

mobility disability associated with the aforementioned performance categories of each of the 3 physical tests, independent of demographics. Data were analyzed using IBM-SPSS version 19 software.aP<.05 was considered statistically Nutlin-3a cost significant. Six hundred twenty-two participants attended the follow-up and were included in the final analysis. Eighty-two participants were between the ages of 50 and 64 years, 320 participants were between 65 and 74 years, and 220 participants were between 75 and 85 years old. A total of 3.5%

had a history of stroke, 2.9% had myocardial infarction, 4.5% reported angina pectoris, 47.7% had hypertension, 11.4% had diabetes, 2.5% had peripheral arterial see more disease, 1.7% reported hip replacement, and 21.5% had either hip or knee pain requiring medication. Eighty-four participants reported mobility disability at 3-year follow-up (total=13.5%, men=8.7%, women=17.6%). Poor performance on the physical tests at baseline was strongly associated with 3-year incident mobility disability, independent of demographic variables. The odds of developing incident mobility disability increased consistently as the baseline gait speed decreased <1.2m/s. Participants who could not complete the 5 times sit-to-stand (5TSTS) were 5 times as likely, whereas those who required >13.7 seconds to complete this test were almost 4 times as likely to report incident mobility disability compared with those who completed 5TSTS in <11.2 seconds. Compared with the highest quartile of the average walking speed during the 400-m brisk walking

test (>1.47m/s), participants who could not complete the test, as well as those who completed the test but with the average walking speed of <1.19m/s, were almost 20 times as likely to report incident mobility very disability (table 1). Using the population-based data, this longitudinal study demonstrated that the performance on all the 3 physical tests was able to predict incident mobility disability. The gradient effect of decline in the usual walking speed on the likelihood of developing mobility disability suggests that the possibility of incident mobility disability consistently increases with a decrease in the usual gait speed. However, the time to complete 5TSTS and the average walking speed for the 400-m brisk walking test provided a more clear demarcation point (fig 1). The confidence intervals of the odds ratios associated with the average walking speed <1.19, that is, >5 minutes 36 seconds to complete 400m and the inability to complete the 400-m brisk walking test, were large, demonstrating significant variability.