07 (N = 22,694, SD = 50.62). In comparison, after winning six times in a row, the figure for mean odds was 0.85 (N = 18,252, SD = 9.82). From the odds that they selected, we can infer that gamblers believed in the gamblers’ fallacy but not in the hot hand. The gambling

results were affected by the gamblers’ choice of odds. One point of odds increase reduced the probability of winning by 0.035 (SD = 0.003, t(36) = 13.403, p < .001). Among all GBP gamblers, the median stake was £14 (N = 371,306, Interquartile Rang = 4.80–53.29). After winning once, the median Galunisertib nmr stake went up to £18.47 (N = 178,947, Interquartile Range = 5.04–66.00). After winning twice in a row, the median stake rose to £20.45 (N = 88,036, Interquartile Range = 8.00–80.00) ( Fig. 4, top panel). For the losing side, the opposite was found. People who had lost on more consecutive occasions decreased stakes. After losing once, the median stake went down to £10.89 (N = 192,359, Interquartile Range = 4.00–44.16).

In comparison, after losing twice in a row, the median stake dropped to £10.00 (N = 101,595, Interquartile Range = 3.33–30.00). These trends continued ( Fig. 4, top panel). Gamblers increased stake size after winning and decreased stake size after losing. This could be the result of more money available after winning and less money available after losing. We examined EUR and USD bets. Findings for selected Akt inhibitor odds were similar (Fig. 3) but those for stake size were less robust (Fig. 4), perhaps because of the reduced sample size. We found evidence for the hot hand but not for the gamblers’ fallacy. Gamblers were more likely to win after winning

and to lose after losing. After winning, gamblers selected safer odds. After losing, they selected riskier odds. Reverse transcriptase After winning or losing, they expected the trend to reverse: they believed the gamblers’ fallacy. However, by believing in the gamblers’ fallacy, people created their own luck. The result is ironic: Winners worried their good luck was not going to continue, so they selected safer odds. By doing so, they became more likely to win. The losers expected the luck to turn, so they took riskier odds. However, this made them even more likely to lose. The gamblers’ fallacy created the hot hand. Ayton and Fischer (2004) found that people believed in the gamblers’ fallacy for natural events over which they had no control. Our gamblers displayed the gamblers’ fallacy for actions (i.e. bets) that they took themselves. This may indicate that they did not believe that bets were under their control. Fong, Law, and Lam (2013) reported Chinese gamblers believed their luck would continue. Does this mean they felt they had more control over their bets? By believing their luck would continue, did they help to bring it to an end? There are likely to be other domains (e.g., financial trading) where people reduce their preference for risk in the wake of chance success and thereby give the impression of a hot hand.